Stocks Rebound Nicely but Rally Lacking

July 17, 2008

Stocks rode the wave of optimism following Wells Fargo’s earnings release prior to market open.  The surprise upside earnings report calmed fears of financial meltdown and helped Financials lead the market.  In addition to financials, airlines too lead the market higher as crude oil prices eased from all time highs.  Although the skies were mostly clear, storm clouds are still here.  Volume was lower across the board as big insitutional players did not flood the market and the two most beaten up sectors lead the market higher.  When coming off lows, we want to see new leadership with new companies and sectors leading the market not the beaten up sectors.

There is nothing more I want than a new bull market.  However, the signs are telling me that we just aren’t ready for one to emerge.  New Highs continue to be trumped by New Lows, volume can not increase as we move higher and the VIX and VXN indexes haven’t shown fear as our indexes make new lows.  I am not going to get terribly excited about this move, like the rally from March through June this one will ultimately fail.  Short term trades can make some money off charts that are breaking out from sound chart patterns.

Best of Luck!

Market Speculator

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