Shaky Market
July 28, 2008
This market continues to show its true colors. For the past 2 out of 3 sessions stocks have taken a beating, although on lighter trade you never want to see this type of action prior to a follow through day. There are some opportunities out there to make money but its not worth risky your entire stake with this crap market. The market is not offering up a chance to become real wealthy here. Until we get some real fear, capitulation selling at the lows we’ll continue to have a choppy market like this one. Keep most if not all of your capital away from this market, save it for our next large bull market.
Enjoy
MyTrack Review
July 27, 2008
MyTrack is a fully integrated online trading software and market data system. You can install it either from downloading from their particular site or from cd. The original MyTrack platform was developed in 1998. The firm behind it, Track Data Corporation has been serving Wall Street institutions since 1981. It is a software [...]
Stocks Turn in Bullish Close
July 22, 2008
Stocks are definitely looking higher, volume accompanied the move today. Although I do not believe we are entering a new bull market I do believe this will help us move higher for a small time frame. Airlines and Financials are leading this rally, not what I want leading. However, I’ll take the upside. Keep your losses small and new positions small.
I am traveling Wednesday, looking forward to a change of scenery. However, I will still post about this crazy market!
Stocks Were Stuck in Idle as Volume Slides Across Wall Street
July 22, 2008
Traders were hesitant to jump in or out of stocks Monday as the market ended relatively flat and on lower volume. Crude oil jumped on news that Dolly may threaten the Gulf’s off-shore drilling facilities. However, the storm seems a little erratic at this point to judge the path and if it will head towards those oil rigs. Stocks at this point seem real sluggish and news that AAPL guided lower (sandbag as the street refers to it) the stock was taken out to the woodshed and beaten. Earnings season is upon us again and we’ll certainly see our share of beats/inlines/misses, but it’ll highlight the point that playing earnings is simply gambling and not speculating. Monday’s action was quite tame, Day 4 for S&P500 and Day 5 for the NASDAQ respective rally attempts. It was nice NOT to see us sell off on heavier trade, but will Tuesday bring on the pain for the newfound “bottom feeder” bulls?
I continue to be cash heavy and not a big fan of building any sort of long term positions. Although we may be close to a bottom, we won’t know until after. Odds are in my favor when I am patient and wait for that bottom to form and then move higher.
Microsoft and Google Weigh on Stocks but Volume Fades
July 20, 2008
Missing analyst estimates sets up the stock to get hammered, MSFT and GOOG did just that. Both stocks were tremendous laggards and were the majority of the reason why the NASDAQ was down over 1.2% for the day. The bright side, volume came in lower than the previous day. Options expiry failed to boost volume as it has done in the past. Friday marked Day 4 for the NASDAQ and Day 3 for the S&P 500. If we were to see a distribution day prior to a follow-through day it would spell trouble for our attempted rally. We are still searching for a follow through day beginning Monday.
Regardless of my opinion (I don’t think we are in a new bull market) if we do manage a follow through day I will gladly take it. At this point we do not have a leadership group in place. Oil stocks were our leaders and with the IBD100 in negative territory is leading me to believe we have quite some time until we can restart a new bull market. We’ll be able to spot a new bull market, it’ll be when new leadership groups will start showing up.
NeoTicker Review
July 20, 2008
NeoTicker is a real time technical analysis platform, which is robust and focuses on advanced technologies. It provides an edge in terms of simplicity, flexibility and scalability. It provides a competitive advantage to traders as it is far ahead of its peers in terms of technology and innovative solutions. There are so many features in [...]
Crude Oil Slumps, Gives Boost to Stocks
July 18, 2008
The big story of the market session was the fact that Crude closed below a key support area of $130.00. This helped calm fears regarding inflation but perhaps the fear of a slowing global economy were overlooked. China’s second quarter GDP fell to 10.1% from 10.6% first quarter. Whether or not this is the beginning of a recession in China will remain to be seen, but taking a look at the fall in the Shanghai index one can all but wonder that the possibility of a recession is high. Here in the United States many believe we are in a “serious” recession, I believe its a perceived recession created by an overzealous media (this is another story). However, these fears have been somewhat dampened by the recent fall in crude oil prices. At the moment, we do see volume favoring the upside and are awaiting for the market to follow through.
Financials lead the market higher once again. This beaten up group is blowing off sever oversold conditions, but we don’t want to see a beaten up group lead the market. In new bull markets, we want to see new innovative companies with new products/services leading us higher. At this juncture we haven’t seen this yet. Yet, we are on Day 4 of a rally attempt for the NASDAQ and could see a follow-through day on Friday. If we begin to see new innovative companies starting to breakout I may change my mind about this market. However, we still did not see show Max fear at our lows signaling a bottom. I remain overly cautious about this market.
Stocks Rebound Nicely but Rally Lacking
July 17, 2008
Stocks rode the wave of optimism following Wells Fargo’s earnings release prior to market open. The surprise upside earnings report calmed fears of financial meltdown and helped Financials lead the market. In addition to financials, airlines too lead the market higher as crude oil prices eased from all time highs. Although the skies were mostly clear, storm clouds are still here. Volume was lower across the board as big insitutional players did not flood the market and the two most beaten up sectors lead the market higher. When coming off lows, we want to see new leadership with new companies and sectors leading the market not the beaten up sectors.
There is nothing more I want than a new bull market. However, the signs are telling me that we just aren’t ready for one to emerge. New Highs continue to be trumped by New Lows, volume can not increase as we move higher and the VIX and VXN indexes haven’t shown fear as our indexes make new lows. I am not going to get terribly excited about this move, like the rally from March through June this one will ultimately fail. Short term trades can make some money off charts that are breaking out from sound chart patterns.
Stocks Fail to Hold Positive Ground
July 16, 2008
Once again, stocks gapped hard to the downside on Tuesday morning. The same old story, fear about the stability of the US banking system. Will it fail? It is the question being asked across Wall Street and Main Street. As stocks appeared to be headed toward being down more than 2% buyers stepped in and started to rapidly buy stocks. It was an impressive rally to come off the lows however, it coincided nicely with Christopher Cox’s testimony that he would start aggressively pursuing “Naked” Short Sellers (shorting stocks without first borrowing the stock from a borker). Needless to say, it appeared the intraday false rally was more linked to shorts covering than anything else. Regardless, price action continues to be to the downside. Volume exploded higher, right from the gate the run rate was tracking much higher all day long. This market remains very sick for bulls and staying on the sidelines is a very wise move.
Are We There Yet?
July 14, 2008
Stocks took a wild ride on Friday as we are trying to search for a near/long term bottom. More fear on Friday struck Wall Street regarding financial firms and their ability to stay afloat. FNM and FRE both opened sharply lower on fears that the government may not step in and “explicitly” support the government sponsored entities. Volume was running hot all day long and finished higher than Thursday’s run rate. New Lows surpassed 1200+ while VIX and VXN both spiked hard but falling short of signaling capitulation. Stocks remain in a bear market and will continue to do so until we get some real fear in this market.
On Saturday, federal authorities seized IMB as a 1930s style bank run occurred as depositors withdrew billions from the bank. The FDIC insured bank was helpless as “sketchy” and down right ridiculous lending practices lead to the demise of the bank. Depositors will now receive full payment up to $100,000 and 50 cents on the dollar for any amount exceeding the $100,000. IMB will be the second largest federal takeover of a bank ever!
