Making Runs, Agriculture and the Dollar Looking for Higher Ground
June 16, 2008
After a large run up in Q1 of this year Agriculture related commodities pulled significantly. Its not uncommon for futures to take a dive after such a large run up. However, a few short months later agriculture commodities are at it again. Check out the chart of DBA:
AmiBroker AmiCharts Review
June 16, 2008
AmiBroker is a complete technical analysis program, allowing a person to study and predict the trend of the market, to give a better picture of the market to the stock traders and investors. This software also help one to maintain a portfolio of all the shares.
Amibroker has all the studies and indicators as built in [...]
Can We Confirm This New Rally Attempt?
June 14, 2008
Friday was Day #2 of our most recent attempted rally. A tame CPI report helped boost stocks throughout much of the day. The hiccup of the day came starting after lunch where we say selling hit the markets. Many market pundits, including RevShark were calling for the demise of the morning rally. Intraday trading like this is dangerous and RevShark and other s were proven wrong. Stocks were able to gather steam and close on the highs of the day. Extremely bullish movement by the markets, but the caveat was volume. Volume declined crossed the board, lessening the impact of the bullish price action. Tuesday will market Day #4 of the attempted rally and where we’ll need to see confirmation of this new rally attempt.
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and now Agriculture and Grains are joining commodities that are continuing their recent uptrends. The recent move in crude oil certainly shocked the markets, I am looking for crude to pull back a bit further. I see Agriculture and Grain commodities resuming uptrends as flooding in the plain states become more of an issue for crops. This will spark more interest about inflation and will set a laser precision focus on what Ben Bernanke and Company plan on doing to combat the issue.
Financials Headed For New Lows, Stocks Lack Buying Interest
June 12, 2008
Financials continue to feel max pain as major banks continue to be hammered by selling. The exotic forms of investment continue to haunt those firms who were careless and did not handle risk properly. Selling has spread throughout the rest of the market as Crude Oil prices race higher. We are also seeing Grains and Agriculture futures point higher as well. These markets have and continue to signal higher inflation. The markets haven’t quite seen a peak in fear, a washout of the markets is highly likely. Along the lines of a washout will more than likely be proceeded by crude oil entering in superspike mode.
The market is in chaos mode and can not be trusted. Financials might continue their trend but the short trade has become so obvious a sharp covering rally could wipe you clean. So few stocks are working to the upside outside of oil and natural gas that you are better off sitting on the sidelines.
Running In Place, Stocks Fail to Gain Any Ground
June 11, 2008
Monday the NASDAQ undercut its most recent rally attempt’s lows reseting our confirmation rally. Tuesday’s action failed to re-ignite a new rally attempt. Volume was on the light side as NASDAQ volume fell roughly 2% while on the NYSE we saw higher volume. This market continues its “no man’s land” path. Overall, this market does appear to be a bit oversold at the moment and good news is that we haven’t been able to accelerate to the downside. However, upside seems a bit LAME! Until a clear direction in this market is set, its best to step aside and let others waste their time.
Times like these the greats would be having a vacation. The lack of interest from large institutional players leads to lackluster markets like we have here. So many stocks are breaking out and failing that it leads me to believe that the sidelines are the best place to be. Now, can we survive the inactivity from the markets? If one stays disciplined than we can certainly survive. The real issue in this market is finding an edge and many do not have one. I for one, do not have a huge edge and why I am more than 50% cash. Trying to overcome not having an edge will destroy a trader both physically and mentally. Be sure you avoid that path!
Fear Invades the Market Like a Plague
June 10, 2008
Like storm clouds moving in Fear has gripped Wall Street. Two fear indicators: VIX and VXN have both risen 37% since the start of the month. It is unreal the amount of fear that has gripped many traders on Wall Street. Most likely candidate, not a big surprise crude oil prices causing major demand curve shifts. All the attention zeros in on the American consumer and can it survive when the price of crude is at historical highs. Monday’s market reflected the fear as the leading index, the NASDAQ tumbled more than 1.5% intraday. Albeit volume was lighter throughout much of the day the price action certainly reflected the element of fear.
There is always a silver lining in the storm clouds and that being we pushed off the lows (bounce of the 50dma) and closed above the mid range of the trading range. In addition, the level of fear that has flooded this market is unreal. Too many participants are bearish on this market in the short term. Do we start a new bull market, I do not think so. However, it does appear we can rally back to the major indexes’ 200dma where we ran into trouble last time. Watch for volume and how it unfolds in the coming days.
ButtonTrader Review
June 8, 2008
ButtonTrader provides a versatile and innovative stock software visual interface which displays market action in real time. It is an innovative trade-management platform oriented to active-traders. It helps the trader to their customize his own strategies, See if it needs any changes, upgrade it according to the latest trend and then simulate it before trying [...]
AMPH - American Physicians Svc
June 8, 2008
This market is not producing stocks with astronomical returns like we saw in 1999, 2003, and even 2004. Gains now seem to get cut off anywhere between 50-100% unless you are PDO and MXC. Although its been difficult I still manage to find excellent stocks although the market is bad. I want to see stocks with tremendous growth in sales and earnings, not 15% growth but 100% or more. This gives me laser focus on the top growth stocks in the market. With this focus on growth I’ve come across AMPH - American Physicians Svc. Lets get to the numbers:
Sales % growth YoY: 120.92%
3 yr Sales growth: 43%
The Market Giveth, The Market Taketh
June 7, 2008
The wildest and craziest market is the one we have on our hands. Friday’s action saw lots of panic but it also saw large cap oil related stocks actually fall as crude oil pushed about $138. Large capitalization oil stocks like CVX and XOM closed down on the day on heavier turnover. Even HES was unable to break into new high territory, it too closed on its lows. Normally, these names help the S&P 500 and Dow Jones when oil moves higher, Friday was not the case. It was the small capitalization oil related names that did well. The NYSE indexes look real unhealthy at this point in time, the only healthy looking indexes are: NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, S&P 400, S&P 600, and Russel 2000. This market is proving that the environment is for small cap oil related names.
Most professionals are not doing as well as many may think. I know many that are struggling to produce solid gains. It is difficult because the market is not reacting as we have seen in the past. Many charts like PWRD for example should have worked, but since we are in an ultra-sensitive world these things do not work. Markets have cycles where conventional wisdom is tested. Human emotion can swing to outside the normal range and when this happens you get markets that are “confusing.” Its at these times where staying disciplined is the most important tool you have.
Stocks Power Ahead Lead by Small Caps
June 6, 2008
Thursday’s action was quite bullish with stocks opening higher at the gate. Volume on the NASDAQ was tracking higher all day and depending on your data provider it was either higher or just slightly lower than yesterday. IBD stated they saw volume lower but with the price action on the NASDAQ it has vaulted back into an uptrend. The strength is in small cap names as rotation is coming out of Large Cap stocks into Small Cap and Mid Cap names. It is quite clear and something I will be taking a closer look at this weekend. Stocks are headed back into rally mode and would make a nice send off for the weekend if we can get more accumulation.
Does this mean we have the green light to buy everything? Certainly not, we must remain disciplined in our trading. I would love to see HOGS form a base here, I need to have another buying opportunity. VISN rebounded nicely off its 50dma yesterday, but it desperately needs to have some follow through on that move. Oil and Gas rleated names continue to be where you want to be as Crude Oil snuck back above $127 on Thursday. Currently, its trading above $130.
Reuters Business- Europe bucks world stock rallyLONDON (Reuters) - World stocks worked on their 10th consecutive session of gains on Wednesday, but European shares were breaking their winning streak and the dollar's recent drive upwards faltered.
- Dow Chemical prepared to delay Rohm & Haas deal: report(Reuters) - Dow Chemical Co is prepared to miss next week's deadline to clinch the $15 billion takeover of Rohm & Haas in an effort to raise enough cash to complete the deal without taking on too much debt, the Financial Times reported on its website late on Tuesday.
- GM says government loans cover worst scenario: report(Reuters) - General Motors Corp has adequate government loans pledged to cover the worst-case scenario it outlined in December to Congress and will not need more unless the economy worsens, a Bloomberg report said.
- Europe bucks world stock rally
- Market Watch
- Earnings Watch: Updates, advisories and surprisesA roundup of the latest corporate earnings reports and what companies are saying about future quarters.
- Europe Markets: Shares in Europe retreat after strong run, banks, miners declineEuropean shares retreat in early trading on Wednesday as investors take a breather after pushing shares sharply higher in the first trading days of 2009.
- Satyam plunges over 70%; Chairman Raju resignsShares of Satyam Computer Services plunged more than 70% in Mumbai Wednesday, after the founder and chairman of India's fourth-largest software company resigned, saying the company had inflated its cash and bank balances on the balance sheet of more than $1 billion.
- Tokyo stocks up on report of plan to end some capital-gains taxesTokyo's benchmark Nikkei index rose more than 2% in late afternoon trading as investors cheered a reported plan to scrap capital-gains tax on foreigners who invest in Japanese companies through funds.
- CES Reporter's Notebook: Name of the game is small, portableIf nothing else, the advent of ultra-small laptop computing devices seems to be a hit with journalists lugging heavy gear around Las Vegas for a week.
- Earnings Watch: Updates, advisories and surprises